The Legacy of 1911

As Xinhua reported yesterday, the Standing Committee of the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) has agreed plans for the commemoration of the 1911 Revolution next year. The event, 99 years ago, saw the overthrowing of the last emperor of China to bring the Qing Dynasty to a close. The end of imperial authority also saw the end to (in Xinhua's words) “thousands of years of Chinese feudalism.” The credit for instigating the revolution is given to Dr Sun Yat-sen (later founder of the Nationalist Kuomintang party), although some historians have tended to ascribe 1911 to a more general desire for change in China.

It was never really in doubt that the People's Republic would look to mark the 100th anniversary of such a key point in China's modern history. Although the Chinese Communist Party only came into being a decade later, Chinese communist history sees the spirit of 1911 as being the start of the political and social change that it would then carry through to 1949. The CCP is thus extremely keen to align itself with the name and persona of Dr Sun, as doing so gives the government today increased credibility. It becomes harder and harder for the CCP to identify itself with China's revolutionary past, making key anniversaries like this one chances that cannot be passed over.

Planning Ahead

While Chinese economic policy contains a degree of flexibility, the overall direction of its development is planned out via a system of 'Five-Year Plans'. This method, which have been in use since the Communist Party came to power in 1949, determines the economic aims and objectives of the government in a particular half-decade period, and sets out how these will be achieved. The PRC is currently in its 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with the twelfth due to start in 2011.

The current FYP has seen Hu Jintao's leadership team continue to oversee China's transition to a modern world superpower in line with Hu's own approach of 'scientific development'.  Deng Xiaoping's 'opening up' principle is still very much in favour in Beijing. Only a couple of weeks ago, Chinese Vice-Premier Xi Jinping was emphasising the need for further foreign investment in the PRC to facilitate increased economic growth. This will allow for more development for China's Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and other designated economic targets.

The next FYP will have an additional dynamic, in that it straddles a major leadership change that is due to occur in 2013. Thus, both current top officials and likely future leaders of the Communist Party will be seeking to have an input into the 12th FYP. At the moment, it does not seem that these interests are too far apart. Xi is tipped by many to be the probable successor to Hu Jintao, and the formers recent speeches and economic announcements demonstrate a strong intention to pick up where Hu and Wen Jiabao have left off. However, Xi's rise to the top is not guaranteed- a fact that is likely to generate at least some differences of opinion when politicians meet to discuss the course of the 12th FYP in the coming months.