A Unique View On a Unique State

Yesterday's post on Sino-Gist covered the preparations and celebrations being made for North Korea's (DPRK) 65th anniversary. The milestone has come at a time of intense political manoeuvring in the country, as Kim Jong-il attempts to gain backing for his son (Kim Jong-un) to takeover as leader when he dies. The North Korean leader had previously taken a visit to China in an attempt to secure Chinese backing for his succession plans.

For the first time in its history, the DPRK has allowed in foreign television crews to film the 65th anniversary celebration parade held in Pyongyang today. The BBC was able to broadcast pictures of military formations and the Worker's Party of Korea's (WPK) leadership- footage which is available on the BBC website. The remarkable pictures are certainly worth a look, if only because they present an extremely rare window into a very secretive state.

All-Important Chinese Backing

China has been engaging in diplomatic pleasantries with North Korea (DPRK) this week in anticipation of the 65th anniversary of the latter, which falls tomorrow. There is currently a PRC delegation in Pyongyang (being headed up by Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang), and the DPRK's embassy in Beijing has been hosting receptions to commemorate the event.

These various exchanges come within the context of the recent leadership changes in the Worker's Party of Korea, which have seen Kim Jong-un (one of Kim Jong-il's sons) promoted to senior party and military positions. The senior Kim had previously made a trip to China with the intention (it is widely speculated) of securing the CCP's backing for his 'keep it in the family' succession plan, in the face of likely opposition to Kim Jong-un from some of North Korea's generals when the handover is implemented.

61 Years of the People's Republic of China

On October 1st 1949, Chinese Communist Party Chairman Mao Zedong declared the founding of the People's Republic of China from atop the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing. The event marked the culmination of the CCP's long struggle against the Nationalist Kuomintang (led by Chiang Kai-shek) and the Imperial Japanese Army, which had occupied vast swathes of Chinese territory in the years preceding its defeat in the Second World War. Since that point, the CCP's brand of Marxism has changed significantly, with the Party currently favouring increased interaction with Western 'capitalist' ideals at the expense of Maoist doctrines. China's reform process has in many ways been remarkable, although the current leadership is as committed to the notion of the Party's superiority as its predecessors were. Economic reform is coming on leaps and bounds- the same cannot be said for political reform.

Today thus marks the 61st anniversary of the PRC's inception- a fact that a visitor to China would have found it practically impossible to miss. Although budgetary pressure means that major ceremonies are now only held every five years (the next one due in four years time for the 65th birthday), the Tiananmen area was nonetheless witness to a lavish spectacle. The celebration activities revolving around the paying of respects to those who (in the words of Xinhua) “sacrificed their lives to build the nation”, with the top leadership laying flowers by the Monument to the People's Heroes. As Xinhua pointed out, October 1st provides China with a chance to remember its past as well as look to its future. The CCP's political legitimacy is founded on its past struggles, and an opportunity to look back makes the Party of Hu Jintao relevant to the Party of Mao Zedong in 1949.

 The Monument to the People's Heroes, Tiananmen Square

Update: Kim Jong-un's Rise Continues

Within the last hour, the BBC has reported that Kim Jong-un's rise to prominence in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is now completed.  As part of the proceedings of the Worker's Party of Korea's (WPK) ongoing conference, the son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was today officially appointed as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the WPK, as well as being elevated to the Party's Central Committee.

Yesterday, Kim Jong-il made conferred on his son the rank of 4 star general, despite the latter's lack of military experience.  This move has been interpreted as the Supreme Leader setting up Kim Jong-un as his successor, in an attempt to compensate for his lack of experience in North Korean political life.  As Sino-Gist commented earlier today, other military figures in the DPRK may have differing ideas over who should lead the country post- Kim Jong-il.  Despite this latest news, the succession issue is far from settled.

Putting the Wheels in Motion

Last week, Sino-Gist covered the wide speculation amongst the world's media that Kim Jong-il may have been trying to manoeuvre his youngest son (Kim Jong-un) into a more prominent position in the Worker's Party of Korea (WPK). Many picked out the decision by the WPK to hold a rare conference as symbolic of the North Korean leader's mind turning more and more to the issue of who will succeed him.

As numerous newspapers and websites are reporting, on Monday Kim Jong-un was made a four-star general in the Korean army by his father, a sign it seems that the latter has settled on his youngest son as the man who will lead the DPRK once he is gone.

Yesterday's move came as part of an order issued by the DPRK's leader emphasising the importance of the military in North Korea's history. Featured on the website of the Korean Central News Agency (see the article “Kim Jong Il Issues Order on Promoting Military Ranks”), the directive highlighted the role of the army as “devotedly defending the headquarters of the revolution with arms”. Clearly, to compensate for Kim Jong-un's lack of military experience and relative youth, Kim Jong-il is keen to drive the importance of his son's promotion (and the new respect he should be given) home.

Signs of a Succession?

Previous posts on this blog have touched on the issue of who will succeed Kim Jong-il as North Korea's leader.  Kim's recent visit to China was seen by some as an attempt to gather Chinese support for the succession of Kim Jong-un (his third son) to the top position in North Korean politics when he eventually dies.  Unconfirmed reports that Kim Jong-il has been severely ill in recent years further lend weight to the notion that he is trying to set-up Kim Jong-un as the DPRK's next leader, in the hope of keeping the top job in the family.

The BBC has highlighted a statement released today by the Korean Central News Agency which declares that "the conference of the WPK for electing its supreme leadership body will take place in Pyongyang on Sept. 28."  As the BBC points out, it was at a similar conference in 1980 that Kim Jong-il was elevated to a senior position in the WPK- a move that effectively anointed him as the successor to his father (and then leader) Kim Il-sung.  If Kim Jong-un receives a similar such promotion next week, this will give a strong signal that the WPK sees its future as resting with another member of the Kim dynasty.

Images For All Occasions

Last Saturday saw this blog mention North Korea's decision to issue a special set of commemorative stamps to mark the 60th anniversary of the intervention by Chinese troops in the Korean War next month.  It seems that the DPRK is also using its stamps to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of President Kim Il-sung (due to fall 2012).  Xinhua has published online images of the stamps, which depict various scenes from the President's life, including him leading troops and addressing North Korean citizens.  They will be in circulation from now until 2012, no doubt serving to try and legitimise Kim Jong-il's own rule of the country and to lend credence to the notion of his son (Kim Jong-un) succeeding him as leader of the nation.  What is even more certain is that the stamps represent only one of the first steps on the long road of activities that will celebrate the life of North Korea's Eternal President over the coming two years.  Kim Jong-il's regime will be looking to maximise the propaganda capital that can be gained from such events.

The Two People's Republics

With the BBC today quoting South Korean media as reporting that Kim Jong-il is in the process of making an official visit to China (his second within a year), it is evident that relations between North Korea (DPRK) and the People's Republic remain on a good footing, despite the tensions caused in the Korean region by the sinking of a South Korean warship in March (for which the North has been blamed).

As usual, Chinese media looks set not to announce the visit officially until the North Korean leader has returned to Pyongyang. However, according to the Xinhua New Agency, Wu Dawei (China's special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs) landed in South Korea on Thursday, having visited the DPRK just a week earlier. These visits put together suggest a strong desire on the part of Beijing to try and stabilise the Korea 'situation' in the wake of the crisis in March. In addition, China will probably be looking to get the 6 nation talks on North Korean disarmament going again after they were scuppered earlier this year.

The reason for this is straightforward enough. The troubles in the Peninsula have placed a continual strain on US-China ties. With America committed to supporting Seoul, and with China anxious to protect the sovereignty of the DPRK (Chinese aid is vital to the survival of the country's economy), tensions between the two Koreas inevitably asks questions of the relationship between Washington and Beijing- questions that both could do without. Talks over the disarmament of the DPRK, were they to be successful, would undoubtedly ease this strain. In the context of this, China will be hoping to use Kim Jong-il's visit to its advantage.

The BBC also raised the question over whether the North Korean leader's trip may have a succession aspect to it. With Kim Jong-il rumoured to have had a stroke 2 years ago, he is reportedly looking to secure his son (Kim Jong-un) as the DPRK's next leader. As the senior communist power in Asia, China will be able to exert a large influence over proceedings once Kim Jong-il is deceased. The Supreme Leader will be hoping that China backs his preferred successor, rather than (with the aim of easing tensions between North and South) attempting to end the dominance of the Kim dynasty in North Korean politics.